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NHC Updates:
Major Hurricane Jose (12L) - 2017
Atlantic:
Hurricane Lee - 80 knots, Hurricane Maria - 70 knots

Single Run Model Error Table for the NHC Models for Low (Jose) - 2017

A non-homogeneous comparison of early and late cycle models
Currently Selected Error Date: September 22, 2017 18:00 Z (Final Run)
Highest Development this storm ever achieved: Major Hurricane Jose (12L) - 135 knots
Sep. 3, 2017 - Sep. 22, 2017
Model Error in a:
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Table

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Chart

About This Product


Only models that were released in the NHC's "aid_public" directory are included here. This means that some models, including ones frequently used, are not included in this error calculation. Please also keep in mind that every storm is different. One model is not always best. Before using this product, consult our product description for methodology. It is important to understand how late cycle models appear in the below model error calculation. With the exception of when late cycle model error data for the 0 hour interval is processed in real time on our site, all model error interval data is associated with when it was initialized, not released. (Late cycle models are initialized 6 hours prior to being released.) For more about the 0 hour interval and how the error date compares to error hour intervals please visit our product description which contains a helpful table. It is extremely important that you know what each hurricane model is for before using this model error feature. Some models do not accurately forecast intensity and in this product these models are alongside ones that do attempt to accurately forecast intensity which can lead to very false conclusions. For example, GFS ensemble members should not be directly compared to models like the GFDL and HWRF when it comes to intensity. The ability to hide the intensity error if the 0 hr is greater than a certain intensity is only available on the model error table and not in the graphical chart. (You can manually hide the models you do not want to view on the chart.) Hover your mouse over a model name for its full model name, if available.

Error Date:

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Position Unit:

Intensity Unit:

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Hide intensity error if 0 hr off by greater than this intensity

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Single Run Position Error

(in nautical miles)



Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
AC00 9.2 20.3 15.2 41.4 81.2 107.3
AEMI 0 24.0 30.4 71.5 231.4 309.9
AEMN 9.2 25.8 15.2 27.8 139.3 183.3
AP01 9.2 12.0 61.7 18.6 137.3 289.8
AP02 9.2 28.5 69.9 19.5 190.1 142.6
AP03 13.9 24.5 22.8 51.6 92.1 106.3
AP04 9.2 18.6 18.4 48.3 260.1 48.0
AP05 9.2 18.6 11.1 70.6 96.4 233.5
AP06 9.2 26.1 46.4 38.0 196.3 315.4
AP07 9.2 63.6 15.2 45.6 216.8 128.1
AP08 9.2 58.6 76.3 42.1 255.1 227.1
AP09 9.2 30.3 46.8 18.6 322.2 157.9
AP10 11.0 18.6 56.1 107.1 350.0 418.0
AP11 9.2 22.8 29.4 41.2 271.2 623.4
AP12 9.2 11.1 46.8 12.0 100.0 300.2
AP13 9.2 37.9 46.9 41.4 100.9 124.7
AP14 9.2 42.8 70.4 36.4 57.1 44.4
AP15 9.2 12.0 24.0 88.2 54.3 55.7
AP16 13.9 41.2 33.2 48.1 272.9 168.0
AP17 9.2 33.1 19.5 49.7 104.0 338.9
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
AP18 9.2 18.4 33.5 33.5 122.4 182.4
AP19 9.2 44.2 12.9 76.6 55.3 102.4
AP20 9.2 45.5 99.0 30.4 70.8 979.8
AVNI 0 24.0 33.1 38.0 98.1 179.1
AVNO 9.2 33.1 15.2 19.5 70.8 38.0
CEM2 0 - - - - -
CEMI - - 46.4 - 260.0 672.0
CLP5 - 93.2 - 521.7 736.0 735.9
CMC 11.0 - - - - -
CMC2 0 - - - - -
CMCI 0 20.3 57.1 159.3 265.0 426.9
COT2 0 - - - - -
COTC - 7.6 - 178.8 - -
COTI - 11.1 27.8 154.2 - 519.1
CTC2 - - 12.0 - - -
CTCI 0 26.2 - 106.7 107.3 115.0
CTCX 7.6 24.0 29.4 78.3 133.9 27.9
DRCL 0 24.0 11.1 78.3 54.3 199.9
DSHP 4.6 22.1 - 104.4 36.9 190.4
EGR2 0 - - - - -
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
EGRI 0 11.1 - 30.1 111.5 128.0
EGRR 4.6 - - - - -
HMNI 0 48.0 56.3 107.3 113.2 212.5
HMON 0 44.2 92.8 131.5 37.2 119.2
HWFI 0 18.4 23.2 70.1 98.4 260.8
HWRF 7.6 12.9 18.6 97.9 92.3 156.2
JGSI 0 26.1 24.0 103.5 - -
JGSM 18.5 30.4 64.8 188.4 - -
LGEM 4.6 22.1 - 104.4 36.9 190.4
NAM 11.0 36.1 18.6 - - -
NAMI 0 4.6 35.3 13.9 - -
NGX 4.6 - - - - -
NGX2 0 - - - - -
NGXI 0 4.6 30.4 80.4 - 304.7
NVGI 0 4.6 30.4 86.2 - 300.2
NVGM 7.6 15.2 24.0 49.9 - -
OCD5 0 93.2 - 521.7 736.0 735.9
OFCI 0 24.0 11.1 93.5 54.3 199.9
OFCL 0 19.5 6.0 78.3 92.9 116.2
RVCN 0 22.1 15.2 36.4 48.0 144.6
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
SHIP 4.6 22.1 - 104.4 36.9 190.4
TABD 0 42.1 - 51.6 140.2 141.8
TABM 0 33.4 - 18.4 36.7 192.9
TABS 0 22.8 - 33.2 76.3 177.2
TCLP 0 76.3 - 383.0 555.0 521.6
TCOA 0 18.4 - 37.3 37.2 115.0
TCOE 0 18.4 - 37.3 37.2 115.0
TCON 0 18.4 - 37.3 37.2 115.0
TVCA 0 19.5 9.3 42.9 74.6 96.3
TVCE 0 19.5 9.3 42.9 74.6 96.3
TVCN 0 19.5 9.3 42.9 74.6 96.3
TVCX 0 19.5 9.3 45.6 84.6 86.7
TVCY 0 19.5 13.9 45.6 88.5 96.3
UKX 7.6 - - - - -
UKX2 0 - - - - -
UKXI 0 15.2 31.4 36.4 111.6 104.4
XTRP 0 71.8 - 299.2 569.7 472.8

Average 4.4 28.3 32.7 86.7 157.8 236.3


Single Run Intensity Error

(in knots)



Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
AC00 4.0 -2.0 -2.0 0 1.0 3.0
AEMI 0 2.0 10.0 14.0 14.0 21.0
AEMN 4.0 -2.0 -2.0 0 1.0 3.0
AP01 4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.0 3.0 -2.0
AP02 3.0 -1.0 -3.0 0 -3.0 -4.0
AP03 3.0 0 -2.0 3.0 5.0 3.0
AP04 4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 6.0 -1.0
AP05 2.0 -2.0 0 1.0 0 -1.0
AP06 6.0 -4.0 -3.0 1.0 -1.0 2.0
AP07 5.0 -1.0 -3.0 2.0 -1.0 1.0
AP08 1.0 -3.0 -4.0 1.0 2.0 7.0
AP09 3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 3.0 2.0
AP10 4.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 7.0 3.0
AP11 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 7.0
AP12 2.0 -1.0 -3.0 0 -5.0 4.0
AP13 5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 0 -1.0
AP14 6.0 -2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 8.0
AP15 4.0 -1.0 0 -1.0 0 5.0
AP16 3.0 -3.0 -2.0 3.0 12.0 7.0
AP17 3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -1.0 -2.0 11.0
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
AP18 5.0 -4.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 0
AP19 5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 6.0
AP20 3.0 -3.0 -3.0 3.0 4.0 8.0
AVNI 0 2.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 -4.0
AVNO 4.0 -1.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0
CEM2 0 - - - - -
CEMI - - 14.0 - 13.0 35.0
CMC -3.0 - - - - -
CMC2 0 - - - - -
CMCI 0 3.0 11.0 24.0 15.0 27.0
COT2 0 - - - - -
COTC - -5.0 - 20.0 - -
COTI - 3.0 7.0 14.0 - -5.0
CTC2 - - 5.0 - - -
CTCI 0 -3.0 - 2.0 -6.0 -2.0
CTCX 0 -6.0 -4.0 -3.0 16.0 -8.0
DRCL 0 0 0 5.0 5.0 10.0
DSHP 0 -1.0 - 4.0 -7.0 -2.0
EGR2 0 - - - - -
EGRI 0 3.0 - 6.0 6.0 -7.0
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
EGRR 0 - - - - -
HMNI 0 -2.0 2.0 8.0 2.0 33.0
HMON 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 11.0 0 13.0
HWFI 0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 6.0
HWRF -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 0 -1.0 16.0
ICON 0 0 - 4.0 -1.0 5.0
IVCN 0 0 2.0 3.0 -3.0 3.0
IVCX 0 -1.0 3.0 4.0 -2.0 9.0
IVRI 0 0 - 3.0 -3.0 3.0
JGSI 0 0 13.0 17.0 - -
JGSM -3.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 - -
LGEM 0 4.0 - 9.0 6.0 10.0
NAM -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 - - -
NAMI 0 3.0 7.0 10.0 - -
NGX -1.0 - - - - -
NGX2 0 - - - - -
NGXI 0 9.0 18.0 26.0 - 25.0
NVGI 0 9.0 18.0 25.0 - 26.0
NVGM -1.0 2.0 4.0 7.0 - -
OCD5 0 13.0 - 24.0 20.0 9.0
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
120hr
OFCI 0 2.0 3.0 4.0 8.0 9.0
OFCL 0 0 0 5.0 5.0 10.0
RVCN 0 1.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 2.0
SHF5 0 13.0 - 24.0 20.0 9.0
SHIP 0 -1.0 - 4.0 -7.0 -2.0
TCLP 0 9.0 - -15.0 -15.0 -11.0
UKX -5.0 - - - - -
UKX2 0 - - - - -
UKXI 0 3.0 14.0 18.0 17.0 8.0

Average 1.6 2.9 4.2 6.5 5.5 8.1

Models with a zero hour intensity greater than 10 knots are not displayed above and are not calculated for the average row. This is not based on any official method and you can adjust this wind speed or even show all models in the options section. See our product description for more on why we do this.

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